Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 99581.346758 104936.124480 110285.168404 116025.891942 122008.950506 128057.152000 134629.704446
2025-09-28 90426.942129 98600.672488 106989.350003 116231.426127 126117.023295 136363.049436 147774.464432
2025-10-05 85115.801271 95328.477197 106032.911347 118067.329962 131197.508218 145065.912619 160798.752709
2025-10-12 80892.492066 92656.636371 105206.106538 119553.153048 135463.595342 152529.283224 172179.802298
2025-10-19 77029.617186 89998.007587 104047.656100 120346.303374 138677.972781 158603.024996 181840.326560
2025-10-26 73349.411327 87261.091448 102545.907561 120513.085835 140979.092006 163488.656714 190038.831234
2025-11-02 70332.756465 85072.198931 101476.017287 120991.615793 143477.751784 168473.897393 198257.432495
2025-11-09 67361.872972 82765.388826 100117.004511 120993.754561 145306.603862 172601.557759 205430.052359
2025-11-16 65395.529550 81514.032835 99873.436840 122190.385217 148433.601585 178159.626723 214214.409319
2025-11-23 62875.440873 79488.135748 98616.951962 122102.761320 149981.503403 181833.517934 220781.525822
2025-11-30 61515.693610 78775.874922 98847.072248 123713.600835 153482.365389 187757.749491 229973.921387
2025-12-07 59958.327700 77750.560397 98639.741559 124747.238789 156258.111284 192810.098443 238144.237600
2025-12-14 57985.196385 76167.028125 97724.371156 124908.788125 157993.300632 196660.920874 244956.836375
2025-12-21 56146.748902 74685.571531 96877.462245 125105.653612 159737.468186 200508.200791 251775.179953
2025-12-28 55309.089539 74413.142197 97479.931874 127050.535894 163591.250263 206888.867966 261660.933195
2026-01-04 54350.552155 73945.274980 97805.564428 128627.089993 166981.270246 212714.356746 270904.319120
2026-01-11 53100.044735 73058.158347 97567.614074 129468.917079 169444.109151 217408.055388 278787.927201
2026-01-18 51608.288080 71810.367923 96831.089773 129645.924425 171052.136269 221041.680673 285378.786012
2026-01-25 50347.504389 70819.922792 96383.174460 130153.918710 173049.305784 225142.707339 292550.510184
2026-02-01 48924.344601 69572.142772 95566.178913 130156.186518 174382.917896 228408.449999 298691.559699
2026-02-08 48126.985763 69123.387785 95754.287612 131426.431278 177310.311389 233657.592410 307315.924612
2026-02-15 46783.001316 67905.919541 94909.521846 131333.421332 178479.612875 236699.206170 313190.415849
2026-02-22 46258.035574 67770.076091 95462.289959 133043.159139 181954.452411 242646.220577 322736.139482